Expert-Grup Director: “Moldova is no longer in recession!”
The Republic of Moldova is not in a recession, despite experiencing modest economic growth. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased by only 1.1% compared to the same period last year. Adrian Lupușor, the director of Expert-Grup, an organization focused on economic research, cautions against misinterpreting this data in public discourse.
Recently, Adrian Lupușor commented on social media regarding claims that the Moldovan economy has entered a recession. He described such statements as misleading or, at least, a misinterpretation of the data. Lupușor urged media outlets and opinion leaders to consult reliable sources before spreading messages that could incite panic or hysteria.
While he acknowledged that the economy faces many challenges, he insisted that it is incorrect to label it as being in a recession. He projected an economic growth of 1.5% to 2.0% for 2025, with an upward trend expected in 2026. "I emphasize that although this growth is insufficient, we must be precise and avoid using incorrect terminology. Moldova is NOT in recession anymore!" he stated, reaffirming his stance as the director of Expert-Grup.
In contrast, Veaceslav Ioniță, an expert from another NGO, IDIS "Viitorul," pointed out that Moldova's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has only grown by 0.4% over the past five years. For 2025, he forecasted an increase of no more than 1%, which he described as "stagnation," indicating that conditions are "worse than those seen in the 1990s."
Ioniță also highlighted that the recession has led to a significant decrease in the number of people actively participating in the economy. By the second half of 2024, the number of employed individuals had dropped to 808,000, the lowest figure ever recorded.
Furthermore, he noted a substantial rise in the absolute poverty rate. In southern Moldova, the poverty rate has jumped from 31% a decade ago to nearly 50% today. In northern regions, it increased from 26.5% to 32.2%, while in Chisinau, the rate rose from 7% to 11%.
